I thought I'd tied everything down but I'd forgotten about the dinghy. It was just tied to the side of Chiara Stella with a bow and stern line.
The wind picked it up and threw it up over the guardrails where it came to rest on the doghouse roof:
The worst is apparently yet to come, around 2-3pm today according to Predictwind. MetService suggests that the worst has already past but they have long since lost my trust.